Buy All The Things, All At Once!

Ok, not literally. But I mentioned in previous posts that I've made a habit of buying everything I need for the year (or more) en masse in the January sales. Bulk purchasing items can save you a lot of money in the long run, assuming you follow some simple rules. Failure to adhere to these rules will result in you wasting money, so don't just rush in with your wallet before thinking ahead.

Try before you buy!

This may sound incredibly obvious, but don't buy any items that you haven't already tried and know you like. Splashing out £500 on 30 boxes of random deodorant, only to discover a day later that it leaves the underarms of your t-shirts looking like a bottle of Tippex exploded in the wash is a quick way to lose £500! Only buy products that you have tried in the past and know will be put to good use.

Avoid perishable goods

Another seemingly obvious one, but don't bulk buy anything that will go off long before you get round to using it. 10 crates of blueberries for £20 is a bargain only if you plan to eat, freeze or preserve them immediately. I tend to keep bulk purchases of most food items to a maximum of a few months supply and only do yearly stock ups of items that I know will last a long time. Also, a year of eating the same food can get pretty boring after a while if, like me, you prefer to change things up every now and then. Plan ahead and make sure you can either store or eat anything that could go rotten. Sometimes the amount of time and work needed to properly store it just isn't worth the money you save.

Check you have storage space

Following on from the above rule... if you do plan to store either perishable or non-perishable items, then check you actually have the space to fit it all somewhere. If you live in a tiny bedsit and only have one plastic container and a few empty gaps under the bed, then don't go crazy and fill up the entire place with 1000 loo rolls. Unless you enjoy living in a pretend fortress and want to relive the excitement of hiding in the supermarket stacks as a child (which is entirely understandable). If you're more of a minimalist type that recoils in horror at having a single ornament littering the perfect lines of your otherwise empty home, then make sure you know where all of your supplies will go before buying anything. Having to pay therapist fees for a psychological meltdown will quickly eat up any money you saved!

Shop around or wait for bargains

Buying things in bulk will usually save money anyway, but ideally you want to save additional money buy waiting until the items you need are on offer. Look around for deals before you bulk buy anything. Haggle further if you can, as some suppliers are happy to give you a better deal if you are willing to take a large amount of stock in one go. There are a couple of markets that I frequent where the traders will offer extra reductions if I pay in cash.

The January sales are a good time to pick up a lot of good bargains. Although check you are actually getting a good rate, as some shops will offer 'discounts' that really aren't. Just because the item is included under a big 'SALE' sign, doesn't necessarily mean it's worth buying. Check the price per item first.

For the less mathematically able among us, to calculate the price per item you just take the total price and divide it by the number of items included. For example, if a shop is selling a crate of 80 oranges for £12, then you would divide £12 by 80 to get a cost per individual orange of 15p.

Online cashback or coupon sites

If you prefer to shop online for most things, get into the habit of checking for extra discounts or coupons via sites like Top Cashback rather than going directly to the shop website. Obviously don't buy things just for the cash back, as that defeats the whole purpose. But if you are planning to stock up on an item anyway, then check if you can get a better deal. It's also worth asking around your friends and family in case they have coupons for items they don't use. Sometimes you can swap them for something you won't use. Which leads to...

Network, network, network!

Do you know others in your social circle that are trying to save a bit more money? If so, it might be worth teaming up and buying even bigger stacks of items in one go. You may find you get an even bigger discount if you purchase 40 boxes of something together rather than 20 boxes each as two separate customers. Or perhaps there is an item that both of you use, but you can't justify buying enough of in one go to get any discount. Teaming up with a housemate/colleague/friend/relative could mean that the total purchase qualifies for 5% off, which benefits you both. Just ensure you live close enough that you don't waste all of the money you save on delivering their shopping!

Buying things in en masse can save you quite a bit of money if done right. Just make sure you plan ahead and avoid any hidden costs.

Winter's Coming!

This will only be a quick update, as I've taken on extra work to build up a bigger and faster nest egg. I'm also spending a lot of my free time pouring over old economic data for patterns.

However, I've started to pull some of my european investments and switch for cash in preparation for the coming big R. I remember the previous recession incredibly well. In fact, it has scarred me for life - thankfully! In my case, having very clear memories of the year or two leading up to it means that I notice those same patterns when they repeat themselves. When one or two repeat, it gets my attention but the issue normally resolves itself. But right now, all of the economic data is pointing towards a nearing cliff edge. So I'm getting myself ready.

I'll freely admit, I can't predict how quickly each domino will fall. Every recession behaves a bit differently. 2008 was fairly quick to happen and slow to recover. In fact, those of us who started our careers in 2008 still haven't recovered. But we are also hyper aware of changes in the economy, which is to our benefit.

There are multiple signals that I look out for, but the main ones are:

The Housing Market

Property prices have stagnated this year. In most places, they haven't started to decline yet. But London tends to be a catalyst for changes elsewhere and the London market isn't looking great right now. Outside of London, new buyers (the GenY/Millennial/Gen Z crowd) are too strapped down with student debt, low wages and high rents to consider house purchases. So as the older owners are starting to downsize or die off, fewer young customers are queuing up to buy from them. This problem isn't unique to the UK. Australia, Canada, America and elsewhere appear to be suffering the fallout from the same generational divide in wealth. Their housing markets are starting to feel similar pressure. In fact, many are predicting a downright crash and advising clients to stay away for now. Foreign investors in the UK market have started to pull away, leaving only 5% of housing stock owned by overseas buyers rather than 12% in 2010. It could be argued that a decline in house prices is a good thing, as those in their 30s waiting to buy a home and start a family will finally be able to. However, when viewed in conjunction with other economic signs, it suggests a not-so-rosy near future.

Debt Levels

Debt is always something I pay attention to, regardless of how the economy is doing. I have an abnormally old fashioned view of debt compared to most people (all debt is bad), which I don't expect the rest of society to follow. But while I assume there will always be some state, business and personal debt, there is a scale from 'bad' to 'worse' to 'unmanageable'. At present, the Eurozone is nearing the 'unmanageable' end once again. Several debt figures should get people's attention. Individuals already have more debt, credit companies are lending out more debt and state spending is up (and a growing population means that spending will only increase further).

Unemployment Figures

These are interesting, as the data currently shows generally low unemployment. However, the total figures hide the fact that wage growth has flat-lined (as an example, I haven't had a pay rise in real terms in almost 20 years) and 'employed' includes underemployment (forced part time or unskilled jobs), zero hours, temporary contracts, those who have stopped looking for work or claiming job seeker benefits, those classed as self employed (even if not earning), and anyone else who may have simply fallen into the gap. I would be far more interested to know how many people are in full time, living wage or above jobs. And by 'living wage' I mean a salary that can cover basic rent, travel costs, food, pension savings, healthcare, other everyday bills, money to save for a house deposit within 5-10 years and repayment of the average student debt. I don't think those numbers would be so high!

Stock Market Drive

Last year saw big gains for those who were lucky enough to have timed the market correctly. Both the UK and US markets crashed and bounced back up following Brexit and Trump's win and they have continued to soar upwards ever since. The S&P 500 has broken multiple highs and is currently on its way to 2500, and the FTSE 100 has been bumping around the 7500 mark following a similar pattern. There was a market boom just like this before the 2008 crash. Markets were reaching new highs amid cheers from investors, lenders relaxed their standards for lending to buyers (oh, hang on),  the housing market began to cool off, panic set in as the number of mortgage defaults increased, then the problem spread outwards to other parts of the economy.

Today, we have the added problem of massive student loans (small mortgages in their own right), Brexit, the myriad problems in the EU (which has only very recently come out of the 2008 recession), China acknowledging their own debt problems (albeit a different situation) and a new creature in the form of subprime car loans in the US. This all feels like déjà vu to me. With the added fun of already non-existent interest rates, backing the BoE into a corner.

Good luck everyone and see you on the other side!


* EDIT: Shout out to the owner of Spicer Lemonade Stand at the Lovebox Festival and her parents for encouraging early entrepreneurial skills! I started my working life selling home-grown tomatoes along our street with my brother and sister and it was an excellent way to learn the basics of business. I hope to see you on Dragon's Den in the not too distant future!