This will only be a quick update, as I've taken on extra work to build up a bigger and faster nest egg. I'm also spending a lot of my free time pouring over old economic data for patterns.
However, I've started to pull some of my european investments and switch for cash in preparation for the coming big R. I remember the previous recession incredibly well. In fact, it has scarred me for life - thankfully! In my case, having very clear memories of the year or two leading up to it means that I notice those same patterns when they repeat themselves. When one or two repeat, it gets my attention but the issue normally resolves itself. But right now, all of the economic data is pointing towards a nearing cliff edge. So I'm getting myself ready.
I'll freely admit, I can't predict how quickly each domino will fall. Every recession behaves a bit differently. 2008 was fairly quick to happen and slow to recover. In fact, those of us who started our careers in 2008 still haven't recovered. But we are also hyper aware of changes in the economy, which is to our benefit.
There are multiple signals that I look out for, but the main ones are:
The Housing Market
Property prices have stagnated this year. In most places, they haven't started to decline yet. But London tends to be a catalyst for changes elsewhere and the London market isn't looking great right now. Outside of London, new buyers (the GenY/Millennial/Gen Z crowd) are too strapped down with student debt, low wages and high rents to consider house purchases. So as the older owners are starting to downsize or die off, fewer young customers are queuing up to buy from them. This problem isn't unique to the UK. Australia, Canada, America and elsewhere appear to be suffering the fallout from the same generational divide in wealth. Their housing markets are starting to feel similar pressure. In fact, many are predicting a downright crash and advising clients to stay away for now. Foreign investors in the UK market have started to pull away, leaving only 5% of housing stock owned by overseas buyers rather than 12% in 2010. It could be argued that a decline in house prices is a good thing, as those in their 30s waiting to buy a home and start a family will finally be able to. However, when viewed in conjunction with other economic signs, it suggests a not-so-rosy near future.
Debt Levels
Debt is always something I pay attention to, regardless of how the economy is doing. I have an abnormally old fashioned view of debt compared to most people (all debt is bad), which I don't expect the rest of society to follow. But while I assume there will always be some state, business and personal debt, there is a scale from 'bad' to 'worse' to 'unmanageable'. At present, the Eurozone is nearing the 'unmanageable' end once again. Several debt figures should get people's attention. Individuals already have more debt, credit companies are lending out more debt and state spending is up (and a growing population means that spending will only increase further).
Unemployment Figures
These are interesting, as the data currently shows generally low unemployment. However, the total figures hide the fact that wage growth has flat-lined (as an example, I haven't had a pay rise in real terms in almost 20 years) and 'employed' includes underemployment (forced part time or unskilled jobs), zero hours, temporary contracts, those who have stopped looking for work or claiming job seeker benefits, those classed as self employed (even if not earning), and anyone else who may have simply fallen into the gap. I would be far more interested to know how many people are in full time, living wage or above jobs. And by 'living wage' I mean a salary that can cover basic rent, travel costs, food, pension savings, healthcare, other everyday bills, money to save for a house deposit within 5-10 years and repayment of the average student debt. I don't think those numbers would be so high!
Stock Market Drive
Last year saw big gains for those who were lucky enough to have timed the market correctly. Both the UK and US markets crashed and bounced back up following Brexit and Trump's win and they have continued to soar upwards ever since. The S&P 500 has broken multiple highs and is currently on its way to 2500, and the FTSE 100 has been bumping around the 7500 mark following a similar pattern. There was a market boom just like this before the 2008 crash. Markets were reaching new highs amid cheers from investors, lenders relaxed their standards for lending to buyers (oh, hang on), the housing market began to cool off, panic set in as the number of mortgage defaults increased, then the problem spread outwards to other parts of the economy.
Today, we have the added problem of massive student loans (small mortgages in their own right), Brexit, the myriad problems in the EU (which has only very recently come out of the 2008 recession), China acknowledging their own debt problems (albeit a different situation) and a new creature in the form of subprime car loans in the US. This all feels like déjà vu to me. With the added fun of already non-existent interest rates, backing the BoE into a corner.
Good luck everyone and see you on the other side!
* EDIT: Shout out to the owner of Spicer Lemonade Stand at the Lovebox Festival and her parents for encouraging early entrepreneurial skills! I started my working life selling home-grown tomatoes along our street with my brother and sister and it was an excellent way to learn the basics of business. I hope to see you on Dragon's Den in the not too distant future!
